Technology in the Next 100 Years the Futurologist’s View Essay Example for Free

Technology in the Next 100 Years the Futurologist’s View Essay Futurologist Ian Pearson discussed technologies of the future to more than 200 IT, security and finance delegates on the Aurora cruise ship. He spoke of IT security threats from smart bacteria, gadgets which are installed in the skin, the soaring of tax rates precipitating the emigration of graduates to low-tax economies, oil at 30 dollars a barrel, and the reversal of globalization. Gadgets of the future Electronics in the human body will record holiday and other experiences bungee-jumping for example and replay them into your nervous system, or someone elses. They will be able to feel the same sensations you did on holiday. This would surpass showing holiday snaps to friends and family. Games headsets are already recording some simple thought processes. Pearson also referred to active skin. Tattoos would be applied to the skin to provide interactive, touchsensitive video displays. One drawback: hackers may try to access your nervous system, though this threat will not deter all. Pearson referred to the digital mirror in which you see yourself as you want to, not as you are. And you could use active makeup to change your look during the day. Smart bacteria the biggest IT security threat to mankind? Pearson said that smart bacteria could be the biggest security threat known to mankind by 2025. They may land on keyboards and work out passwords. Even before [your password] signals reach the PC and get decoded by the software, they [smart bacteria] are already taking money out of your bank account. He told anyone in the audience who is working in IT security and is less than say 40-years-old: change your career. He referred to bacteria linked via infrared that form sophisticated self-organising circuits. Robots will replace IT workers the human-machine convergence Pearson referred to an optical brain in a conscious computer a billion times more powerful than the brain with emotions and senses. The conscious computer could be fully sentient benign or malicious. He showed on a slide the stages of man from homo erectus and homo sapiens to what he called homo machinus and bacteria sapiens within 150 years. By 2018 there may be a robot as smart as you are. Robots may have a higher IQ than humans and take over many intellectual and IT jobs today. Today many people work as smart machines. Machines will become much smarter. Research is being funded into making computers thousands and even a million times smarter than humans, he said. Why humans will still be needed the female-dominated economy But humans will add value because of the need for compassion. A robot will never be able to sit beside a patient, give them a cuddle and make them feel better. A robot can clear up a bedpan and give an injection, 2/6/13 Technology in the next 100 years: the futurologist’s view prescribe drugs. Compassion needs humans. A PC will be able to do what a human does today in an intellectual capacity. But a human will add value because of emotion and compassion. He said that workplaces will be designed for meeting people. Pearson spoke of the male-dominated economy coming to an end. Everything I do I could do with a piece of software if I spent enough time writing it. What my wife does, dealing with other people, I cannot do that at all. So she will have a job in 2020 whereas my job will be automated. We are heading very rapidly towards a female-dominated economy. Globalization in reverse Globalization is increasing. But it will soon start reversing. You cannot shake hands with someone or give them a cuddle across a network. Globalization, he said, will start to reverse thanks to the refocus on the care economy over a 100 year period. Oil at 30 dollars a barrel by 2030 Pearson made a case for the wo rlds energy coming from the Sahara and other deserts within 22 years, and oil at less than 30 dollars a barrel. He said that solar power from the Sahara, even at 12% efficiency, could replace carbon-based fuels such as oil, petrol and diesel. The Sahara alone could supply 40 times more energy than we need for the whole planet. One barrel of oil is the equivalent in energy of a solar panel, which measures one square metre, working in the Sahara working for six months. He spoke of solar farms in the Sahara, and super-cables to transmit the energy. By 2030 you cannot sell a barrel of oil for more than 30 dollars. At some point the maximum obtainable price will fall below extraction cost and the rest will be left in the ground. Obsolescence is great for IT and the environment Pearson said that the faster that technology becomes obsolete the faster miniaturisation will happen, which will reduce the drain on the worlds resources. Eventually we get a total sustainable future where everyone has all the IT they can dream of and almost no environmental impact. He added, The faster the obsolescence the faster we get there. If anyone tells you obsolescence is a bad idea, ignore them or argue with them but do not believe them. Do not ever limit your obsolescence cycle. That will slow down progress and increase environmental impact. As an example miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size. Agility is more important than being best-in-class Business will change faster. You should not focus on being best-in-class. You need agility. Optimisation is only a good strategy in a stable environment. Security too much will kill your company You cannot have a watertight security policy you have to give enough freedom to employees to do their jobs. In an extreme, your security department can kill your company better than any hacker. He said that boards of directors should beware of setting extreme goals for their heads of IT security. How can you have sensible security while making sure your employees can do their jobs well? Most blue chips do www.computerweekly.com/opinion/Technology-in-the-next-100-years-the-futurologists-view?vgnextfmt=print 2/4 2/6/13 Technology in the next 100 years: the futurologist’s view not do that very well at all. They stop their employees from doing their job. He warned that employees will bypass the corporate systems and do their jobs on home PCs, where there will not be any security at all, and then they will have their ideas stolen. Or they [employees] will be so inefficient you will not have a company. Tax rates will soar sending graduates overseas Pearson said there is nowhere near enough money in the governments pension funds to cope with a population that is living much longer.